Goldman Sachs has cut its year-end gold forecast by $500 an ounce, lowering its target to $4,900 from $5,400.
Summary
- Goldman cut its year-end gold target to $4,900 as expected Fed rate cuts faded further.
- Gold remains above current levels in Goldman’s outlook, but near-term risks now look weaker overall.
- Higher rates can pressure Bitcoin and gold by keeping cash and bonds more attractive longer.
According to Bloomberg, the bank still expects gold to rise from current levels, but it now sees a smaller move than before.
The revision comes as Goldman no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026. Market reports said the bank now expects the next rate cuts to arrive in 2027, after earlier forecasts pointed to easing sooner.
Goldman commodity analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said their view remains “structurally constructive but tactically cautious.” They also pointed to near-term downside risk and medium-term upside risk.
Fed pause weighs on gold
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17. The central bank said inflation remains above its 2% target and pointed to price pressure linked partly to energy.
That matters for gold because bullion does not pay yield. When interest rates stay higher, bonds and cash can look more attractive than holding gold. A stronger dollar can also make gold less attractive for buyers using other currencies.
Reuters reported that gold headed for a third weekly loss on June 19 as the dollar firmed and hawkish Fed signals weighed on prices. Spot gold fell to its lowest level since June 11 during the session.
Bitcoin faces the same liquidity test
A delayed rate-cut cycle can also weigh on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Lower rates often support digital assets by improving liquidity and reducing the cost of capital.
As previously reported by crypto.news, Bitcoin fell toward $63,000 after stronger U.S. jobless claims data reinforced the Fed’s hawkish outlook. Traders reduced exposure after the Fed kept rates unchanged and left the door open to tighter policy.
Crypto.news also reported that Bitcoin slipped toward $65,000 ahead of the Fed decision as traders cut risk. Falling oil prices offered some relief, but they did not fully offset concern over rates and inflation.
Traders watch inflation and rate odds
Goldman’s lower gold target does not mean the bank has turned fully bearish on bullion. The $4,900 forecast still points to a price above current levels, but the path now looks more dependent on inflation cooling and Fed policy shifting.
The market is also watching whether geopolitical risk can keep demand for safe-haven assets alive. The war in Iran has added uncertainty, but rate expectations and dollar strength have recently carried more weight in daily trading.
For Bitcoin, the same pressure remains visible. Crypto.news earlier reported that rising bond yields hit crypto-linked equities and pushed Bitcoin lower as rate-hike odds climbed.
Gold and Bitcoin are different assets, but both can react to the same liquidity backdrop. If rate cuts stay delayed, traders may keep favoring cash, short-term bonds, and the dollar. If inflation cools and the Fed turns softer, both markets may find a better base.
