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Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Why is XRP price down today?

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XRP (XRP) price corrected on March 27, decreasing by approximately 3.8% in the last 24 hours to trade at $2.35. Its daily trading volume has jumped by 27.5% to $3.37 billion, reinforcing the intensity of the sell-side activity.

XRP/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Key catalysts driving the XRP prices lower today include:

  • Failure to rally despite Ripple dropping its cross-appeal case against the SEC.

  • Lack of enthusiasm among derivatives traders.

  • A textbook bearish technical setup.

Ripple’s dropped cross-appeal fails to boost XRP

One of the most significant factors is the lack of a strong market response following Ripple’s decision to drop its cross-appeal in the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit. 

Key takeaways:

  • On March 25, Ripple announced it would withdraw its appeal against the SEC, bringing its case with the agency to a conclusion.

  • Ripple had appealed against a prior ruling, which included a $125 million fine for violating securities laws through institutional XRP sales. 

  • According to Ripple’s chief legal officer, Stuart Alderoty, the resolution reduced the fine to $50 million, with $75 million returned to Ripple, signaling the end of a four-year legal saga.

  • Alderoty also highlighted that the agency will ask the judge to lift the injunction placed on Ripple in August 2024. 

  • The new development follows Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s earlier announcement last week that the SEC will drop its appeal against the company, challenging a 2023 decision that XRP’s programmatic sales to retail investors did not constitute securities offerings. 

  • Under the new leadership led by acting Chair Mark Uyed, the agency has reversed most of its legal actions against crypto companies, including Coinbase, Kraken, Uniswap, and Immutable.

  • However, XRP’s price has remained flat in the past few days.

  • The absence of a rally indicates waning momentum and possible profit-taking by traders who expected more upside.

Low Open Interest and negative funding rates

XRP’s price action is also reflecting a lack of enthusiasm in its derivatives market, evidenced by low open interest and funding rates. 

Key points:

  • Open interest (OI), the total number of outstanding futures and options contracts, remains subdued, indicating reduced trading activity. 

  • Currently, at $3.82 billion, the OI is 52% below its peak of $7.8 billion witnessed on Jan. 18, dropping 5% over the last 24 hours.

  • Declining OI means less capital is entering the market, which can exacerbate the price decline as buying pressure dries up.

XRP open interest across all exchanges. Source: CoinGlass

  • Compounding this issue are negative funding rates in XRP perpetual futures markets. 

  • Funding rates represent the periodic payments exchanged between long and short-position holders. 

  • This metric flipped negative on March 27, dropping from 0.0088% to -0.0049% over the last 24 hours.

  • When rates turn negative, shorts (bets against the price) pay longs to keep their positions open, suggesting bearish sentiment. 

XRP funding rates across all exchanges. Source: CoinGlass

  • If buyers do not step in, these conditions can create a self-reinforcing cycle of selling pressure, further dragging the price down.

XRP price validates bear flag pattern

XRP has confirmed a bear flag pattern on the daily chart after closing below the lower boundary of the flag at $2.45. 

Key levels to watch:

  • XRP is currently testing the support level at $2.30 after flipping the flag’s lower trendline into resistance.

  • The $2.22 range low (from March 18) and the flag’s base at $2 are key levels.

  • A high volume move below these support levels could drag XRP prices lower.

  • The maximum loss target from the pole’s length indicates that XRP could revisit the $1.60 level over the next few days.

  • This would represent another 31% descent from current levels.

XRP/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

  • The relative strength index (RSI) has dropped from 62 to 49 over the last three weeks, indicating increasing bearish momentum. 

As Cointelegraph reported, veteran trader Peter Brandt said that XRP is forming a textbook head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart, projecting a possible 50% drop toward $1.07.

Brandt explained that a rally above $3 would invalidate this pattern to avoid a potential 55% correction. 

“Below $1.9, I would not want to own it. H&S projects to $1.07. Don’t shoot the messenger.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.